The sphere for Saturday’s $1 million. Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs is loaded with high quality, as six of the seven horses entered have earned greater than $1 million of their careers. The Foster is a Win and You’re In qualifying race for the 2025 $7 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional held Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
In whole, the main six contenders have gained 38 races and earned practically $26 million so far. Hit Present ($8.4 million) enters the race off a win within the Group 1 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. Final 12 months’s Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional Winner, Sierra Leone ($6 million), was final seen ending third within the Grade 2 New Orleans Traditional Stakes Offered by Relyne GI by Hagyard in his 2025 debut however gained the Traditional final fall following the same third-place effort. Mystik Dan ($4.4 million) gained the Grade 3 Blame Stakes final month over Churchill’s observe and on the mile-and-an-eighth distance of the Stephen Foster. That was Mystik Dan’s first victory since taking the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve final 12 months, a race that Sierra Leone completed second in. Skippylongstocking, a fan favourite who has earned $3.6 million in his profession, simply gained the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes. First Mission ($2 million) enters the Stephen Foster off a win within the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. Mindframe gained the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Offered by Ford on the Kentucky Derby undercard this 12 months on the shorter distance of seven furlongs. Ashcroft rounds out the sphere, having gained two of 12 profession races and with fifth- and sixth-place efforts in stakes in his two most up-to-date races.
Evaluation of the highest contenders:
Coach Brad Cox has a pair of runners on this 12 months’s Stephen Foster Stakes in Hit Present and First Mission. Mixed, these two excellent Thoroughbreds have gained 15 of their 30 races however have by no means confronted one another till now. Of the pair, I’ll give First Mission slight desire, and it could be that he’ll seemingly supply higher odds for a win guess than his stablemate. Why? As a result of Flavien Prat, who rode First Mission to victory within the Oaklawn Handicap in his most up-to-date begin, chooses Sierra Leone as his mount, whereas Florent Geroux, who rode First Mission in 5 straight races earlier than that, together with three wins, chooses Hit Present. I’ve completely no downside with Luis Saez taking the mount on First Mission on this race, not solely as a result of (per Race Lens) Saez and Cox have teamed as much as win 16 graded stakes grime routes prior to now 5 years (from 38 races), but additionally as a result of Saez rode First Mission to victory within the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes within the spring of 2023 and was within the saddle when First Mission completed second by a nostril within the 2023 Clark Stakes Offered by Norton Healthcare, the autumn equal of the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs.
First Mission ran the most effective race of his profession final 12 months when profitable the Alysheba Stakes Offered by TwinSpires over Churchill’s observe, incomes a 115 Equibase Pace Determine. Returning to the races this previous February following six months off, First Mission returned to prime kind with a 114 determine within the Razorback Handicap, ending third by a neck. Then, within the Oaklawn Handicap on April 19, on the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Foster, First Mission ran much more impressively when drawing off late to win by two lengths, equaling his career-best determine of 115. Breaking from the rail within the Foster, Luis Saez can use the horse’s glorious tactical velocity to get to the lead, or if one other horse desires to have the lead, First Mission can sit in second within the early phases, which is strictly what he did within the 2023 Clark underneath Saez when he took over with 1 / 4 mile to go and practically held on to win.
Mystik Dan ran the race of his profession 13 months in the past when victorious within the Kentucky Derby by a nostril over Sierra Leone and Ceaselessly Younger. That effort earned him a then career-best 109 determine. After a runner-up effort within the Preakness Stakes, Mystik Dan by no means might get again to that sort of kind, ending his 3-year-old marketing campaign with eighth- and sixth-place efforts. Even in his 2025 debut as a extra mature 4-year-old, Mystik Dan didn’t look like aggressive, as he pale to ninth within the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes after racing in third for the primary three quarters of a mile. Given somewhat greater than three months off, when he returned in Might, Mystik Dan discovered his previous kind, first dropping by a neck within the Lake Ouachita Stakes and incomes a brand new career-best 116 determine, after which simply profitable the native prep for the Foster, the Blame Stakes, final month at Churchill Downs. The 112 determine he earned within the Blame might be improved upon in his third begin off the layoff, and if Mystik Dan can repeat the 116 (determine) effort from one race earlier than final, this might lead to an epic end Saturday if each First Mission and Hit Present run as anticipated.
Hit Present gained the Lukas Traditional Stakes on the 1 1/8-mile distance and at Churchill final fall, incomes a strong 108 determine, after which he gained the Hagyard Fayette Stakes, additionally on the distance. Following that, in final 12 months’s Clark Stakes (the identical race First Mission practically gained the earlier 12 months), Hit Present completed third as the favourite with no seen excuse. In his 2025 debut, Hit Present gained the Louisiana Stakes Offered by Relyne GI by Hagyard, however regressed to complete third within the Santa Anita Handicap Offered by Yaamava’ Resort & On line casino. Coach Brad Cox had quite a lot of confidence within the colt when transport him to run within the Dubai World Cup in April and was rewarded when Hit Present ran the most effective race of his profession, beating 10 different horses together with final 12 months’s Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Ceaselessly Younger. With that effort, Hit Present earned a surprising 127 Equibase Pace Determine, which if repeated would make him greater than formidable on this race. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the horse’s final six wins together with 5 in stakes races. On June 21 at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Stephen Foster, Hit Present (together with First Mission) put in a really sturdy exercise timed in 59.2 seconds for 5 furlongs, which was the third-fastest of the day on the distance, so he’s sending all the proper alerts for an additional “A” effort.
Three of the opposite 4 Foster entrants have all run properly sufficient to win this race prior to now, however every has slight knocks in my view. Sierra Leone earned a career-best 116 Equibase Pace Determine when he gained the Breeders’ Cup Traditional in November, however previous to that he put in lower than stellar efforts in main stakes races when ending third, second and third. Though he redeemed himself final fall within the Traditional, Sierra Leone as soon as once more underperformed in his solely begin up to now this 12 months when he completed third because the prohibitive favourite within the New Orleans Traditional Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Since there’s no method to adequately estimate which Sierra Leone goes to indicate up for the Foster – the Breeders’ Cup model or the one from his different 4 most up-to-date races – I’m taking a stand in opposition to him. Skippylongstocking earned a career-best 115 determine profitable the Charles City Traditional Stakes final August and he gained the Hollywood Gold Cup in his most up-to-date race. The knock on him is that he’s by no means completed higher than third in any of his 10 tries in Grade 1 stakes races, and it seems primarily based on the power of the highest three contenders on this discipline that report is prone to be zero for 10 when the Stephen Foster is concluded. Mindframe was very spectacular profitable the Churchill Downs Stakes on Might 3 with a 105 determine, however that race was run at seven furlongs. He could also be higher round one flip as evidenced by the very fact he led with an eighth of a mile to go the final two occasions he ran round two turns, however ended up ending second each occasions.
Ashcroft rounds out the sphere and seems overmatched, together with his greatest effort coming in April 2024 in an allowance race the place he earned a 110 determine. Since then, Ashcroft has completed fifth, fifth and sixth and was by no means in competition in any of these three efforts.
High Three Win Contenders:
