If it is a Group 1 stakes in Europe, Aidan O’Brien will saddle the favourite. Properly, not all the time, however more often than not.
The most recent instance happens Thursday (Jul 31), when O’Brien’s three-time stakes winner Whirl leads a subject of 5 within the 1 1/4-mile Nassau Stakes (G1) for fillies and mares at Goodwood.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) spot on the road
Victory within the “Win and You are In” Breeders’ Cup Problem race will earn a berth within the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
O’Brien was gushing concerning the 3-year-old, and for good motive, after she defeated Kalpana by 1 1/4 lengths June 28 within the 1 1/4-mile Fairly Polly Stakes on the Curragh. Whirl’s first Group 1 success came visiting the 4-year-old filly who’s the 7-1 future-book favourite for the Oct. 5 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), Europe’s most prestigious race. Whirl, the 11-1 second alternative, would transfer up with a Nassau win.
“Whirl could be very particular and really powerful,” O’Brien stated. “She is a type of exhausting and real racing machines with massive lungs — she’s all muscle and bone. She’s an unimaginable filly and loves getting right into a battle.”
Nassau Stakes Odds: Whirl is early 7-5 betting alternative
She’s the 7-5 early-line favourite for a 185-year-old race O’Brien has received 5 instances, together with final 12 months with Opera Singer. Andrew Balding trains the 4-year-old See The Hearth, the 9-5 second alternative and the primary risk to Whirl. See The Hearth was second by a neck to Opera Singer in final 12 months’s Nassau, and Balding is upbeat about her possibilities.
“We thought she ran an excellent race at Ascot in opposition to the boys within the Prince of Wales’s Stakes [third],” he stated. “It was a career-best efficiency, and she or he’ll have a neater time, you’ll assume, in opposition to her personal intercourse within the Nassau. It is by no means simple at Group 1 stage, however she’s getting into there in nice form.”
Submit time is 10:05 a.m. ET on Thursday.
For individuals who guess horse racing, here is a horse-by-horse evaluation. The sector from the rail out, with jockey, coach and odds in parentheses:
1 RUNNING LION (William Buick, John and Thady Gosden, 20-1)
She’s 0-for-6 relationship to final 12 months, crushed by a complete of 66 3/4 lengths. Greatest effort got here final fall [second in a Group 1 on very soft turf in Paris]. She will not get that form of floor within the Nassau and is in over her head.
Betting verdict: Toss
2 SEE THE FIRE (Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy, 9-5)
Likes the course and distance and goes effectively on agency floor — two wins and a strong third within the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. She completed behind two stars [multiple-stakes winners Ombudsman and Anmaat] that day at Royal Ascot, so she has class. A strong various to Whirl.
Betting verdict: Win contender
3 BEDTIME STORY (Wayne Lordan, Aidan O’Brien, 6-1)
Ran a powerful second on smooth going June 15 within the 1 1/4-mile French Oaks (G1), however she’s 0-for-4 since final August. Lordan normally rides the pacesetter to arrange O’Brien’s finest runners, so count on him to carry out that service for Whirl. Gained two 7-furlong stakes, so the velocity is there, and would possibly grasp on for third.
Betting verdict: Toss
4 CERCENE (Gary Carroll, Joseph Murphy, 6-1)
Pulled off one of many main upsets on the Royal Ascot assembly by taking the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at odds of 33-1. By no means been farther than a mile, so 10 furlongs is an enormous query mark. Her solely off-the-board end was a seventh final 12 months in a race received by Whirl.
Betting verdict: Toss
5 WHIRL (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien, 7-5)
Contrarian bettors hope she regresses after two terrific races, the Fairly Polly and the 1 1/2-mile Epsom Oaks (G1). Within the Oaks she almost beat stablemate Minnie Hauk, who took the Irish Oaks (G1) in her subsequent begin. Prone to go off at even cash or decrease, so a win guess is not engaging.
Betting verdict: The decide
$20 exacta with Whirl on high of See The Hearth and a $10 exacta reversing them.
The picks: 1 Whirl 2 See The Hearth 3 Bedtime Story
