Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s knowledgeable prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a number and common visitor on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio community dedicated to sports activities and sports activities betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You’ll be able to comply with Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you may learn his picks under for the 2025 BMW Championship, which will get underway Thursday at Caves Valley GC in Owings Mills, Md.. Together with Kannon’s really helpful performs, you’ll additionally see information from Chirp Golf, a cell app that options each free-to-play and each day fantasy golf contests the place you may win money and prizes with every spherical and event.
In case you are an everyday follower of this column, you may doubtless attest to what a bizarre season it has been for us so far as playoffs.
It started with our collection of J.J. Spaun (110-1) dropping in a playoff to Rory McIlroy on the Gamers Championship. A month later, McIlroy beat us in a playoff once more after we had been on Justin Rose, additionally at triple-digits (110-1) to win the Masters. Quick ahead to late June when our man, Chris Kirk (80-1) misplaced in a playoff on the Rocket Traditional.
Final week at TPC Southwind, I actually thought we had been going to recover from the hump. We hit Hideki Matsuyama (28-1) for a winner right here final 12 months and I assumed we had been going to make it two seasons in a row with Spaun (50-1). After which but once more, we went to the dreaded further holes. Oddly sufficient, it was McIlroy who received us in opposition to each Spaun and Rose earlier within the 12 months, and now with McIlroy not within the area, it was Spaun versus Rose within the playoff, of which we after all got here out on the dropping finish once more. A enjoyable story to inform, a enjoyable sweat down the stretch in every, however not precisely probably the most enjoyable outcomes.
Onto Caves Valley and the BMW Championship. It’s Spherical 2 of the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs and we’re right down to the highest 50 gamers within the FedEx Cup standings. As soon as once more, it is a no-cut occasion and for the second straight week, we’re quick a participant as Sepp Straka has withdrawn resulting from a household matter.
Caves Valley is a Tom Fazio design and performed host to this championship again in 2021 however we will anticipate issues to be a lot totally different 4 years later. The golf course had been overrun with rain main as much as that occasion in 2021. The gamers performed carry, clear, and place for 4 days and beat the course to a pulp. Patrick Cantlay and Bryon DeChambeau each completed a whopping 27 below par in regulation. Cantlay ultimately bested DeChambeau on the sixth playoff gap to seize the title. Did I simply say “playoff” once more? Ouch.
There are some lingering thundershowers within the forecast this week however nothing like we skilled beforehand. Temperatures will probably be within the low 90s and little to no wind is predicted. Extra importantly, the golf course will play as a par 70 this time round versus a par 72 prefer it did in 2021. Size was added too. Caves Valley this week will tip out at 7,600 yards and that may be a beast of a Par 70. Huge hitters dominated this event 4 years in the past and I anticipate we’ll see that be the case once more right here this 12 months.
I checked out Stokes Gained: Ball Placing, Strategy, and Off the Tee. I additionally thought-about Driving Distance, Birdies or Higher Gained, and Gap Proximity from 175-yards or extra. Lastly, we’re on Bentgrass this week and that’s the sort of floor I utilized to my incorporation of Strokes Gained: Placing.
As for correlated programs, I wished to make use of lengthy, driver-heavy tracks. Memorial Park in Houston (Houston Open) is smart, as do Quail Hole and Torrey Pines, residence to current main championships in addition to the Wells Fargo Championship and Farmers Insurance coverage Open respectively. I checked out Pinehurst No. 2, the place the 2024 U.S. Open was held and eventually, Olympia Fields, the place most just lately the 2020 and 2023 BMW Championships had been performed.
With solely 49 gamers within the area this week, I performed 4 guys at cheap odds after which took a few stabs on two longshots for little or no danger.
Ludvig Aberg (22-1)
It has been an up and down 12 months for the massive Swede, however he did decide up his second-ever PGA Tour victory at Torrey Pines when the Genesis Invitational was performed there again in February. He has additionally completed prime 10 in two of his final three begins. Final week in Memphis, Aberg ranked fifth within the area for SG: Off the Tee and 14th for Driving Accuracy. He was additionally twelfth at Pinehurst final June. I like the way in which his sport is shaping up proper now and this course should be proper up his alley.
Cameron Younger (30-1)
Right here’s one other man who’s a bomber off the tee — and as of late, he has been placing fantastically. Off of his first-ever Tour win two weeks in the past, he took fifth final week at TPC Southwind. He’s been as excessive as twentieth at Torrey Pines, fifteenth at Olympia Fields, and was runner-up at Quail Hole in 2022.
Hideki Matsuyama (38-1)
Like Aberg, right here’s one other man we had been on early within the season for a winner however has been a little bit of a disappearing act since. Though, it appears like the shape is perhaps coming again round as Matsuyama has completed prime 20 in every of his final 4 begins and hasn’t missed a lower in three months. During the last 24 rounds, he ranks prime 5 on this area for SG: Strategy and in Gap Proximity from 175 yards or extra.
Hideki Matsuyama on the 2025 Sentry.
Getty Photographs
Ben Griffin (40-1)
Griffin has been about as regular as they arrive this season with 9 top-10 finishes, together with two wins. He does all the pieces properly together with size off the tee and placing. During the last 24-rounds, Griffin is 14th on this area for Driving Distance and nineteenth for SG: Placing (Bentgrass). A type of prime 10s got here at Quail Hole when he completed eighth on the PGA Championship.
Taylor Pendrith (70-1)
Pendrith was fifth on the PGA Championship again in Could at Quail Hole, was fifth on the Houston Open in April, and completed sixteenth final 12 months on the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. He’s completed seventh, ninth, and sixteenth at Torrey Pines in his profession. He’s an enormous hitter who hits greens in regulation and ranks ninth on this area for Gap Proximity from 175-200 yards. He’s considered one of our longshots, sure, however I imagine his sport undoubtedly is smart for this course.
Thomas Detry (180-1)
Identical with this man, who, like Pendrith, additionally has a superb monitor document at some big-boy, driver-heavy golf programs — and in addition occurs to be a terrific putter. Moreover, Detry is chasing a spot on the European Ryder Cup crew as he’s presently thirteenth within the standings. He’s completed prime 20 twice at Torrey Pines, was 14th at Pinehurst final 12 months, and was additionally runner-up in Houston final season. Once more, one other longshot who most likely should be priced nearer to 120-1 somewhat than 150-1 or increased. Let’s cross our fingers this week and see if we will run right into a payoff somewhat than a playoff.
Who Chirp Golf customers are choosing this week
This info will probably be up to date as quickly as its acquired.
A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Brady Kannon is a number and common visitor on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio community dedicated to sports activities and sport betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You’ll be able to comply with Brady on X at @LasVegasGolfer.
