Hyperlink to knowledge:
Vault
Uneven Bars
Steadiness Beam
Ground Train
Over the previous few years I’ve seen gymnastics followers consistently reward the gymnasts who competed in Ground Finals on the 2012 Olympics. The 2012 lineup for ground finals was legendary. It featured the Olympic Ground Champions of 2004 (Catalina Ponor), 2008 (Sandra Izbasa) and 2012 (Aly Raisman). It had the World Champions on Ground of 2010 (Lauren Mitchell) and 2011 (Ksenia Afanasyeva). If that wasn’t sufficient expertise, the 2012 Ground Finals additionally featured two extra gymnasts who would win Olympic medals on this occasion, Aliya Mustafina (2012) and Vanessa Ferrari (2021).
For years gymnastics followers have fawned over this lineup, going so far as to label it probably the most proficient, star-studded and full discipline of gymnasts to ever compete in an Equipment Finals on that exact occasion. My purpose is to see how the 2012 Ground Finals compares to different Equipment Finals within the historical past of ladies’s inventive gymnastics (WAG). Are there another comparable Equipment Finals that had an equally proficient discipline? Does the popularity of 2012 Ground Finals dwell as much as its standing as the best Equipment Finals ever when the info is absolutely analyzed?
This particular article is just the introduction to the collection and a proof of the methodology I’ll use to reply this query. In contrast to different knowledge evaluation tasks, this explicit query is very subjective and equally complicated to reply. So, I wished to create a “house web page” for the collection the place I clarify the methodology. However first, let’s discuss in regards to the issues.
Downside #1: Outliers
The key impediment to this query is the way to get round outliers. One apparent outlier is Simone Biles who has six gold medals in six appearances on ground. An much more excessive instance is Svetlana Khorkina who has seven gold medals and 11 appearances on the uneven bars. However the largest and most excessive instance of an outlier, from a gymnast whose profession is such an anomaly that she has perpetually destroyed most vault data is Oksana Chusovitina.
At 17 appearances in Vault Finals and ten profession medals on this occasion, Chusovitina would singlehandedly skew all 17 of these lineups in direction of the highest of the checklist.
With these outliers in thoughts, any “profession totals” are unusable. This contains whole appearances, whole medals, whole gold medals, and placement within the factors system are out of the query. That leaves just one choice, to take “greatest profession consequence” and use that as a benchmark as a substitute. For instance, a gymnast who received two bronze medals and a silver medal will likely be counted within the knowledge as a silver medalist.
Downside #2: Subjectivity
As beforehand talked about, it is a extremely subjective query. Gymnastics followers would possibly want measuring success based mostly on which lineup had probably the most gold medalists. However what about lineups that had probably the most repeat medalists? Is a gymnast who received a single gold medal and retired superior in rank to a gymnast who received a silver medal at two totally different Olympics? Is a “top-heavy” 8-person lineup that had three gold medalist and no different medalists superior to a “depth” lineup that had seven silver medalists however just one gold medalist?
With a view to make issues fairer, I will likely be calculating the numbers twice for every equipment. The primary calculation will use the standard factors system and is designed to reward lineups that had been prime heavy. The second calculation will take the factors system and add a bonus to reward lineups that had extra depth.
Sadly, in the interim I can’t be counting a number of medals per gymnast. Every gymnast will solely be counted based mostly on her single greatest consequence. As a consequence, this implies a gymnast reminiscent of Dina Kochetkova who has two appearances in Ground Finals, a gold medal and a fifth place end will likely be equal in rank to Simone Biles, a 6x gold medalist on this exact same occasion. That’s the worth of attempting to supply knowledge on a subject that’s rift with outliers and subjectivity.
Whereas the Kochetkova v. Biles instance could appear unfair, doing it this fashion additionally protects the info from one other main outlier, uneven bars on the 2015 World Championships which infamously featured a 4-way tie for gold. Not solely did 4 gymnasts share a gold medal, however all 4 gymnasts received a number of medals on the uneven bars. Two of them are repeat gold medalists (Viktoria Komova & Fan Yilin). One other is a gold and silver medalist (Madison Kocian). Whereas the final is a gold and bronze medalist (Daria Spiridonova).
One of many main advantages of limiting the info to at least one medal per gymnast is minimizing the impression of ties that may in any other case dominate the info.
Sooner or later I want to broaden this collection in a manner that goes past one medal per gymnast, however as a result of that is such an formidable undertaking to undertake, the pure plan of action was to start out easy and slowly work my manner as much as a extra complicated manner of rating lineups at a later date.
Methodology #1 (Factors-Conventional)
The primary methodology which is to be labeled the “Factors-Conventional” rating and is meant to reward lineups which might be probably the most “prime heavy” will contemplate solely medals received on the Olympics and World Championships.
Solely medals received on the particular equipment in query will rely in direction of the info, a gymnast successful in vault finals won’t assist her rating if she additionally qualifies to uneven bar finals. From right here the usual 3-points for gold, 2-points for silver, and 1-point for bronze factors system will likely be utilized. Within the occasion of a tie each gymnasts will obtain the total level whole. As beforehand talked about, gymnasts are capped at one medal every and no factors are generated for gymnasts who end 4th or decrease within the standings. Qualifying or competing in an equipment finals doesn’t enhance a gymnast’s rating. She should at minimal win a medal.
Methodology #2 (Factors-Bonus)
The second methodology which is to be labeled the “Factors-Bonus” rating is meant to reward lineups that followers would contemplate to have “depth.” It’s equivalent to Methodology #1 with the next steps added.
All lineups will likely be counted based mostly on the variety of gymnasts current who by no means received a medal on this particular equipment on the World Championships or Olympics. Lineups with two or much less gymnasts will obtain a bonus level of +1 added to their whole from the earlier methodology. Lineups with one gymnast or much less will obtain +2 bonus factors. Lineups the place all gymnasts completed their careers with a medal will obtain +3 bonus factors.
There are a handful examples reminiscent of beam finals on the 2021 World Championships the place lineups had greater than eight opponents. To forestall these examples from being put at an unfair drawback within the Factors-Bonus mannequin, solely their eight strongest opponents from Methodology #1 will likely be counted when figuring out if they’re eligible for bonus factors.
Observe: In each rankings the bottom potential rating is six factors.
Lastly, I will likely be releasing the info in REVERSE Olympic order (ground, beam, bars, and vault) as a result of it was 2012 ground that impressed this text and that knowledge ought to be offered first.
Hyperlink to knowledge:
Vault
Uneven Bars
Steadiness Beam
Ground Train
