For individuals who wager horse racing, it’s well-known that Saratoga Race Course can also be known as the “Graveyard of Favorites’’ in addition to the “Graveyard of Champions.”
Both is acceptable as a few of racing’s greatest upsets have taken place on the iconic upstate New York racetrack. A couple of examples: Upset (in fact!) over the nice Man o’Battle within the 1919 Sanford Stakes; Jim Dandy (100-1) over 1930 Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox within the Travers Stakes; Onion over 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat within the 1973 Whitney; and Eager Ice (16-1) over 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (3-5) within the Travers.
In lower than two weeks, Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, will possible be the favourite within the 156th version of the 1 ¼-mile Travers – the signature race the summer season season aka the ‘Midsummer Derby.’
The sector must be a robust one – Preakness (G1) and Haskell Stakes (G1) winner Journalism (second within the Derby and Belmont) stays doable, as does Baeza (third within the Derby and Belmont) and Magnitude, again in profitable type after being sidelined for the Triple Crown following a blowout victory within the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Plus, a bunch of longshots.
Is there a Travers upset within the playing cards?
However is there a shocker within the playing cards? Like Adonis in 1945, who gained and returned a contemporary period report $53.20 on a $2 win wager?
Based on the New York Racing Affiliation, the betting favourite has gained 52 of the final 119 Travers – or 43.7% of the time. Historical past says betting favorites win races at a 30-38% clip, end first or second at a 62% price, and end within the high 3 74% of the time.
Betting favourite outcomes the previous 5 years
For handicappers, it’s all about previous performances, however historical past must be thought-about earlier than inserting your wagers.
So, let’s begin right here: The Travers betting favourite has gained three of the previous 5 years.
- In 2024, 7-5 favourite Sierra Leone was third behind winner Fierceness (7-2 third selection) and runner-up Thorpedo Anna (3-1 second selection).
- In 2023, favourite Forte was fourth behind winner Arcangelo (5-2 second selection) and longshots Disarm (12-1) and Tapit Trice (13-1).
- In 2022, even-money favourite Epicenter gained
- In 2021, odds-on favourite Important High quality gained
- In 2020, odds-on favourite Tiz the Regulation gained
Extra Travers betting historical past
Starting in 2000, the favourite has gained 9 of 25 Travers (a win price of 36%, lower than the general common of 43.7% over the previous 119 editions.
How the Travers favorites fared from 2000-2024, with odds, end, and winner in parentheses as warranted:
| 2000 | Dixie Union, 2.55-1 | 4th (Unshaded) |
| 2001 | Level Given, .65-1 | WON |
| 2002 | Medaglia d’Oro, .75-1 | WON |
| 2003 | Peace Guidelines, 2.30-1 | 2nd (Ten Most Wished) |
| 2004 | Lion Coronary heart, 2.60-1 | 7th (Birdstone) |
| 2005 | Roman Ruler, 2.15-1 | 3rd (Flower Alley) |
| 2006 | Bernardini, .35-1 | WON |
| 2007 | Road Sense, .35-1 | WON |
| 2008 | Pyro, 3.75-1 | 3rd (Colonel John) |
| 2009 | High quality Highway, 3-2 | 3rd (Summer time Chicken) |
| 2010 | Trappe Shot, 3.90-1 | 9th (Afleet Specific) |
| 2011 | Keep Thirsty, 2.40-1 | WON |
| 2012 | Alpha, 2-1 | WON (DH with Golden Ticket, 33-1 |
| 2013 | Verrazano, 1.60 | 7th (Will Take Cost) |
| 2014 | Bayern, 2.45 | 10th (V.E. Day) |
| 2015 | American Pharoah, .35-1 | 2nd (Eager Ice) |
| 2016 | Exaggerator, 2.55 | 11th (Arrogate) |
| 2017 | Good Samaritan, 3.85 | 5th (West Coast) |
| 2018 | Good Magic, 1.45 | 9th (Catholic Boy) |
| 2019 | Tacitus, 2.40-1 | 2nd (Code of Honor) |
| 2020 | Tiz the Regulation, .50-1 | WON |
| 2021 | Important High quality, .45-1 | WON |
| 2022 | Epicenter, 1-1 | WON |
| 2023 | Forte, 1.75-1 | 4th (Arcangelo) |
| 2024 | Sierra Leone, 1.75-1 | 3rd (Fierceness) |
